Daily Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The mean count of everyday killings per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new official data. But, security analysts have advised that homicide data might not signal better national safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in the previous September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded over these months is extremely significant,” the President said, adding that in November the least figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military campaigns to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is particularly true given the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was also concerning because it may hide periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to show their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.