Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.