Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
