Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
