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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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